GDPNow Third Quarter Forecast Rises to 2.5 Percent, Recession Out? – Mish Talk

Keep in mind the GDPNow forecast as of August 10.

The GDPNow model estimates real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.5 percent on Aug. 10, up from 1.4 percent on Aug. 4. Following recent releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, the current growth in real personal consumption expenditure in the third quarter, real private domestic investment growth in the third quarter, and real government spending growth in the third quarter. the third quarter increased from 1.8 percent to 2.7 percent, -0.3 percent to 0.2 percent and 1.4 percent to 1.7 percent, while the current contribution of change in real net exports to real GDP growth in the third quarter fell from 0.35 percentage point to 0.30 percentage point.

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